Dougherty's 68 leads Open early; Woods shoots 71

Golf Betting Lines

06/14/2007 - Oakmont, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Dougherty was the early first-round leader at the U.S. Open after finishing off a two-under 68 Thursday afternoon at Oakmont.

Angel Cabrera was a shot further back at one-under 69.

Tiger Woods and defending champion Geoff Ogilvy both shot one-over 71 playing the same group, and a host of other well-known players were in the mix.

Wearing a brace on his left wrist, Phil Mickelson was on the practice green well ahead of his 1:36 p.m. (et) tee time.

Dougherty's number was already one shot better than the leading 18-hole score at Winged Foot last year, when Colin Montgomerie's 69 was the highest first- round score to lead a U.S. Open in 20 years.

Indeed, there were plenty of low scores early Thursday when it looked like the rain Oakmont received on Wednesday might have slowed the greens considerably and given the players some advantage.

"I certainly think it's helped us because it softened up the greens today," said Dougherty, who needed just 11 putts to shoot 32 on the back nine. "You can get putts to stop relatively close to the hole."

Dougherty had four birdies to go along with back-to-back bogeys at Nos. 7 and 8. His last birdie was set up by a 54-degree wedge shot to six feet at the 17th, a 313-yard par four.

The 25-year-old Englishman, who is still looking for his first PGA Tour victory, said he though the course was "easy." Not that he wanted everyone to know he said it.

"I hate saying it ... Especially if a USGA official picks up on that," he commented.

Still, there were only around a dozen players at even-par or better when Woods finished. Bubba Watson and Jose Maria Olazabal were in the clubhouse with even-par 70s.

David Toms started hot and was an early leader, but he made five bogeys on his last six holes and shot a two-over 72. Pablo Martin, a 21-year-old Spaniard, was tied with Woods and Ogilvy at 71.

Oakmont was showing its teeth.

Woods hit his first drive at No. 1 into one of the course's 210 bunkers and opened with a bogey, but came right back with a 15-foot birdie at the second hole to get to even-par. He made par from bunkers at the third and fourth, then rolled in another 15-foot putt for birdie at the sixth.

He was even-par around the turn, though, after making a bogey from a bunker at 288-yard, par-three eighth, then slipped to one-over with a two-putt bogey at the 10th.

Hitting into another bunker at the 12th, Woods made bogey and fell to two- over. But he made a good par after hitting into a bowl-like scoop in the green at the 13th, then later moved back to one-over with a three-foot birdie at the 17th.

It was a grinder's round from the world's top player.

"The golf course is playing hard, and this is with pretty benign conditions and pretty favorable pin positions," Woods said. "You know the U.S. Open is going to be a grind."

Woods missed the cut last year at Winged Foot when he opened with back-to-back rounds of 76, then admitted he wasn't ready to play so soon after his father's death.

Thursday, he did just enough to almost guarantee that wouldn't happen again.

"I hit enough fairways to at least give myself a chance," said Woods, who has won two U.S. Opens and 12 majors overall. "When I didn't, I just put it back in play."

The weather Thursday was overcast and cool with a slight breeze -- perfect playing conditions even if the course toughened steadily as the first round wore on.

"Oakmont probably will never play easier than we had it in the first nine holes," said Ogilvy, whose birdies included a six-foot putt at the 13th.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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