Almirola surprise winner in Dover truck race

Autoracing Betting Lines

05/14/2010 - Dover, DE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aric Almirola overcame a one-lap deficit and then had enough fuel to get him through a green-white-checkered finish to pull off a stunning victory in Friday's Dover 200 Camping World Truck Series race at Dover International Speedway.

Kyle Busch put on a dominating performance by starting on pole and leading 172 of 204 laps. He ran in front when an incident involving Johnny Sauter forced a caution in the closing laps. Busch spun his tires on the restart, while second-place runner Johnny Benson did not come up to speed. But rookie Austin Dillon's truck blew an engine and dropped fluid on the track to bring out the caution flag and set up a green-white-checkered finish.

Busch was running third prior to the final restart, but he unexpectedly slowed on the track and pitted before the green flag was displayed. Several drivers ran out of fuel just after the restart, allowing Almirola to finish almost one second ahead of James Buescher and claim his first win in the series.

"It's such a long-time coming," said Almirola, whose first truck win came in his 55th start. "I've raced in a lot of NASCAR races, and to be here in victory lane, what a treat."

Almirola fell one lap behind when he suffered a flat tire during the mid- stages. He only led the final seven laps.

"It's about never giving up," he said. "You never know when things will come back your way."

Almirola also became the 11th different winner in as many truck races at Dover.

Buescher finished second, while rookie Justin Lofton and Ricky Carmichael took the third and fourth spots. The top-four drivers posted their career-best finishes in the series. Former truck champion Todd Bodine completed the top- five.

With the win, Almirola took over the points lead. He holds a 27-point advantage over Bodine. Timothy Peters crashed in the late going and wound up finishing 25th, dropping him from first to third in the standings (-72).

"I was a little bit impatient, and we still had a long way to go," Peters said. "We weren't really good at the start of the race."

David Starr finished sixth, followed by Matt Crafton, Mike Skinner, Ryan Sieg and Benson.

Busch suffered a fuel pump issue and ended up finishing 16th.

The race featured 10 cautions, including one for Max Papis' accident on lap 53. Papis slammed the wall hard.

"It was a very hard impact for sure," said Papis, who finished 29th. "I hurt my foot a little bit, but it's not going to be that bad. I'll put some ice on it."

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.