2010 Western Athletic Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Hawaii Warriors may have the most Western Athletic Conference Tournament titles with three, the last coming in 2002, but this year the islanders aren't even invited to the party as the 27th annual event kicks off this week at the Lawlor Events Center in Reno.

Bringing just eight of the nine member teams to the Silver State, the WAC left the league's least successful program at home and this year it was Hawaii. To further signify Hawaii's problems, the school fired head coach Bob Nash on Monday after just three year's at the helm.

On a more positive note, the top-seeded Utah State Aggies showed once again why they are a force to be reckoned with, sporting a wildly successful 14-2 conference mark as they prepare to take on eight-seeded Boise State in the quarterfinals on Thursday afternoon. As well as USU played this season though, putting up a 25-6 record by no means guarantees the team a place in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, the Aggies know all too well what it means to be snubbed by the selection committee because it was just a few years ago that Utah State, ranked in the AP's top-25, lost in the Big West Conference Tournament and failed to make it to the NCAA Tournament. It was the first time that a ranked program failed to get an at-large bid since the tournament went to 64 teams.

Utah State, the defending champ, is riding a lengthy 15-game win streak into this event and has players like Tai Wesley, Jared Quayle and Nate Bendall to thank for that. Wesley leads the program in both scoring (13.7 ppg) and rebounding (6.4 rpg) and is also first with 40 blocked shots and second in assists with 101. Quayle (11.9 ppg) has the sort of inside-outside game that coaches dream about, able to not only clear 6.2 rpg but also shoot 43.2 percent behind the three-point line. He also led USU in assists (132) and steals (37). Bendall accounts for 10.5 ppg and gives the squad another set of hands on the glass with 5.7 rpg, helping the Aggies to have one of the best rebounding groups in the WAC.

As for the Broncos, they essentially slipped into the tourney because Hawaii completely fell apart. BSU, which won this event in 2008 against New Mexico State, did average a solid 74.2 ppg this season, but at the same time the group gave up 72.5 ppg. Ike Okoye led the way with 12.9 ppg and 8.0 rpg, shooting 53.6 percent from the field, while Robert Arnold showed signs of life in recent weeks and finished the regular season with 11.7 ppg and 4.2 rpg. One of the keys for the Broncos will be the play of Paul Noonan, a starter last season who is now coming off the bench to supply nine points per outing.

Set to take on the winner of the Boise State/Utah State matchup will be the survivor of the Fresno State/Louisiana Tech dog fight. The California Bulldogs were an enigmatic bunch to say the least as they lost Paul George (16.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg) to injury and kept winning and then regained his services and hit the skids. Toss in Sylvester Seay with his 14.3 ppg and 6.0 rpg and FSU had one of the top scoring tandems in the league, but still struggled to come up with 66.3 ppg. The team as a whole is just 32.1 percent successful, yet has allowed opponents to make goof on 37.2 percent beyond the arc. Greg Smith has been a solid interior performer for Fresno with his 11.8 ppg and 6.0 rpg, while Steven Shepp (5.6 ppg) sacrifices his own offense in order to direct the squad with his 145 assists.

LaTech, one of three teams in the league that has never won the tournament title, let alone make it to the championship round, had the talent to be one of the teams to beat this season, but the squad lost three of the last four games coming down the stretch and fell to the fourth seed as a result. Even though he missed the last several games because of an injury, it is expected that Kyle Gibson will be back and ready to go for the Bulldogs. If not, LaTech again has the problem of filling the void left by a player who is averaging 19.1 ppg and is one of the better passers with 92 assists. Magnum Rolle (14.5 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Olu Ashaolu (10.6 ppg, 8.3 rpg) have been beasts in the paint for LaTech, seemingly always around the ball when it comes off the rim. In the case of Rolle, having logged 69 blocked shots means he gets his hands on the ball as much as anyone on the roster.

A perennial favorite in this event and the host team this season, second- seeded Nevada is tasked with taking on the seventh-seeded Idaho Vandals. The Wolf Pack started off the season a but shaky with two wins in six tries, but the squad picked it up in conference play thanks to the efforts of Luke Babbitt who is one of, if not the, top player in the conference this season. A double-double machine, Babbitt finished the regular season averaging 21.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per outing. Not only does he dominate in the paint, Babbitt is also a tough matchup because he has made 43 percent of his three- point tries this season and that has helped the program hit on 36.6 percent beyond the arc. As soon as defenses began to close up on Babbitt, teammates like Armon Johnson (16.0 ppg, 167 assists), Brandon Fields (14.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Joey Shaw (10.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg) began to get better looks at the basket and take advantage of their opportunities. Toss in the under-appreciated Dario Hunt with his seven rebounds per game and his team-high 60 blocked shots and it is easy to see why Nevada should be sticking around until the end as all good hosts should.

The Vandals had their moments this season, but the fact that they lost to Nevada in both regular-season meetings doesn't bode well for the group at this stage. The big news coming out of Moscow is that Kashif Watson (10.7 ppg) has been suspended for disciplinary reasons and that means the squad will be missing one of its three double-digit scorers. As a result, even more pressure will now rest on the shoulders of Mac Hopson (14.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 149 assists) as if it wasn't there already. Steffan Johnson (10.2 ppg) might feel compelled to try his hand at even more three-pointers on Thursday, which might not be a bad thing seeing as how he's made good on 41.1 percent of his tries this season and the Vandals are a solid 38 percent as a group. Center Marvin Jefferson will certainly need to stay out of foul trouble in order to improve upon his 9.0 ppg and 6.1 rpg, especially now that Watson has gone and handicapped the squad.

The last pairing for the quarterfinals might just be the most interesting as sixth-seeded San Jose State clashes with third-seeded New Mexico State. The Aggies, who lost on the road at SJSU this season, has one of the most explosive offenses in the league and averages 78.5 ppg. However, this is also a group that is one of the weakest in the nation on defense with a hefty 78.6 ppg allowed. Jahmar Young leads a list of five double-digit scorers with his 20.9 ppg, followed by Jonathan Gibson with 17.8 ppg as the duo combines to deliver 176 assists along the way as well. Hamidu Rahman (14.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Wendell McKines (10.6 ppg, 9.9 rpg) do all of the dirty work on the inside and yet this squad still losses the battle of the boards by an average of almost three per game. For NMSU, the good news in recent weeks has been the return of Troy Gillenwater who missed the first 21 games of the season. A great addition to the front line, Gillenwater has contributed 14.0 ppg and 6.3 rpg during his return and figures to be an important piece of the puzzle moving forward.

The Spartans may have known they were in trouble this season when they lost to Northern Colorado on the road in late December. Granted, the Bears are a solid team out of the Big Sky Conference, but SJSU lost by 24 points in that matchup and was one of the most lopsided setbacks of the season for the Spartans, who are a dismal 2-12 in this tournament over the years. The team's 14-16 record on the season overall was disappointing, especially since Adrian Oliver was one of the top offensive producers in the entire nation with his 22.5 ppg. Oliver does a bit of everything for San Jose State from shooting 41.7 percent from three-point range to clearing 5.3 rpg and also handing out 87 assists. Robert Owens and Chris Oakes chip in with 10.6 and 10.5 ppg, respectively, the latter among the league leaders with his 9.1 rpg. Like New Mexico State, the Spartans have a problem holding down opponents and have given up 75.1 ppg, which means this matchup could see plenty of action at both ends of the floor.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.